AGP Executive Report

Sudan Crisis Spillover: RSF attacks near the Chad border have razed villages in North Darfur, killing civilians and pushing thousands across into Chad, with UN-linked reporting describing burned homes, bodies left in the streets, and worsening displacement conditions. Human Rights Watch: UN and UK-linked warnings highlight risks of further atrocities in Sudan’s besieged areas, as investigators point to alleged RSF abuses and the need for stronger international action. Chad in the Spotlight: Chad is named among countries eligible for Namibia’s visa-on-arrival scheme, while separate reporting flags Chad’s education strain, including very low adult literacy and a wide gender gap. Regional Security Cooperation: Nigeria’s army chief convened African land forces leaders in Port Harcourt, calling for a unified front against terrorism and cross-border threats—an agenda that directly overlaps with Lake Chad Basin instability. Humanitarian Funding: Action Against Hunger’s PharmaBox—mobile, temperature-controlled medical storage—has won a major innovation award, with prior deployments including Chad. Climate Pressure: UN agencies warn El Niño could intensify extreme weather across Africa, listing Chad-region-relevant neighbors among the most at risk.

Chad in Focus: A new report flags Chad as the world’s lowest adult literacy country, with adults averaging just 2.3 years of schooling and a sharp gender gap (female literacy 18.2% vs 35.4% for men), underscoring how education limits long-term political and economic resilience. Security & Borders: UN reporting says Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces have attacked villages near Chad’s border, burning homes and driving thousands across into Chad, while UNICEF warns Sudan’s war has killed or injured at least 330 children in six months. Regional Terror Crackdowns: Nigeria’s military says it arrested 12 Boko Haram/ISWAP collaborators in Borno and nabbed a suspected terrorist informant in Kebbi, as forces push operations to disrupt logistics networks. Climate Risk for the Sahel/Lake Chad: UN agencies are appealing for $200m+ to protect 8.8 million people across 22 African countries ahead of El Niño, with Nigeria and Chad-area states among those at risk. Diplomacy & Development: Cameroon announced expanded security at Douala’s port with a new Rapid Intervention Battalion base, while Chad-linked humanitarian logistics gets a boost via Action Against Hunger’s PharmaBox award-winning mobile medical storage units.

Lake Chad Security Crackdown: Nigerian troops under Operation HADIN KAI arrested 12 suspected Boko Haram/ISWAP collaborators in Damasak, Borno, recovering phones and cash, after earlier intelligence from a detained suspect. Border-Region Arrests: In Kebbi, troops arrested a suspected terrorist informant/logistics supplier in Arewa LGA, seizing a motorcycle, phone, and N69,000. Regional Military Coordination: Nigeria’s COAS Waidi Shaibu used the Nigerian Army Day forum in Port Harcourt to push African army chiefs toward a unified front against terrorism and cross-border threats. Cross-Border Humanitarian Shock: Sudan’s RSF attacks in North Darfur reportedly razed villages and displaced thousands into Chad, with UN-linked reporting of mass flight and destroyed homes. Infrastructure as Security Policy: Nigeria’s Works Minister David Umahi defended road rehabilitation as a “non-kinetic” tool to improve military response and reopen trade corridors in the North-East. Chad-Linked Risk Watch: A conservation report warns vulture demand and poisoning practices are spreading from West Africa into Central Africa, including Chad, threatening local bird populations. Aviation Incident Over Chad: Kenya Airways said a New York-bound flight turned back to Nairobi after a flight control spoiler malfunction detected while over Chad, with no injuries reported.

Lake Chad Security & Cross-Border Threats: Nigeria’s Army chief Waidi Shaibu warned that instability across the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel is worsening Nigeria’s internal security, calling for tighter regional vigilance against foreign jihadist infiltration. Regional Military Cooperation: Shaibu also convened the Third African Land Forces Forum in Port Harcourt with army chiefs from 17 countries, pushing a unified front against terrorism and insurgency. Chad-Linked Humanitarian Pressure: UNHCR reports the Lake Chad Basin crisis is displacing millions, with warnings that violence and attacks are spiraling. Chad Border Spillover in Focus: A report notes an attempt to smuggle 74 migrants south of Libya’s Al-Wahat area, with the group traveling from the Chadian border. Central Africa Aid Innovation: Action Against Hunger’s PharmaBox—built with the CMA CGM Foundation—won Fast Company’s 2026 World Changing Ideas Award, with deployments including Chad. Chad in the News Cycle Beyond Security: Conservationists warn vulture poaching linked to belief-based demand is spreading from West Africa toward Central Africa, including Chad.

Security Cooperation: Nigeria’s COAS Waidi Shaibu used NADCEL 2026 in Port Harcourt to push a united African front against terrorism and cross-border insecurity, warning that instability in the Lake Chad Basin, Sahel and Gulf of Guinea is spilling into Nigeria’s threat picture. Counterterror Operations: In Borno, troops under Operation HADIN KAI arrested 12 suspected Boko Haram/ISWAP logistics and informant links in Damasak, while separate reporting says a NIPSS attack suspect was nabbed in Jos south while receiving treatment for a gunshot wound. Infrastructure as Strategy: Works Minister David Umahi defended Tinubu’s road rehabilitation push—flagging Borno corridors like Maiduguri-Dikwa-Gamboru as both trade lifelines and faster military movement routes. Chad in the Region: A Kenya Airways New York-bound flight reportedly turned back after a spoiler malfunction while cruising over Chad, underscoring Chad’s role as a transit corridor. Humanitarian & Climate Risk: UN agencies warn El Niño could hit multiple African states, including Nigeria and Sudan, and UNHCR reports Lake Chad Basin displacement is worsening. Regional Diplomacy: Algeria’s AU C-5 mission, with Chad among members, arrived in Juba to review South Sudan’s peace implementation.

Lake Chad Humanitarian Alarm: UNHCR says insecurity across the Lake Chad Basin is worsening fast, with 3.5+ million people forcibly displaced and 8.2 million needing aid; it cites a surge of security incidents (+80% from Jan 2024 to Apr 2026) and nearly 1,800 incidents plus 5,700+ deaths between Sep 2025 and May 2026, with Borno highlighted as the epicentre. Cross-Border Security & Migration: Chad’s southern border crackdown continues after authorities thwarted a smuggling attempt of 74 undocumented migrants, detaining 44 Chadians and 30 Sudanese and transferring them for legal processing. Regional Military Coordination: Nigeria’s army chief, Lt-Gen Waidi Shaibu, used the NADCEL 2026 platform to push stronger African land-forces cooperation against terrorism and insurgency, linking instability in the Lake Chad Basin, the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea to Nigeria’s threat environment. Violence on the Ground: Suspected Boko Haram raids and attacks continue to hit the region, including a Cameroon Far North raid that killed seven villagers, and separate reports of killings and injuries in Plateau State linked to suspected Fulani bandits.

Lake Chad Humanitarian Alarm: UNHCR says insecurity across the Lake Chad Basin has displaced 3.5 million people and that 8.2 million need aid, with nearly 1,800 security incidents and 5,700+ deaths recorded between Sept. 2025 and May 2026. Border Security in Chad: Chad’s anti-illegal migration agency says it stopped a desert smuggling attempt carrying 74 undocumented migrants who crossed from the Chadian border, detaining 44 Chadians and 30 Sudanese for legal processing. US Troop Drawdown Debate: The US says it withdrew most additional troops used for a Lake Chad counter-ISIS operation but will keep intelligence cooperation; Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters insists the partnership remains intact. Military Posture & Training: Nigeria’s Army chief Waidi Shaibu highlights intensified urban warfare, counter-insurgency, and cyber defence training amid threats across the Lake Chad Basin, Sahel, and Gulf of Guinea. Chad Denies CAR Destabilization Claims: Chad’s foreign ministry rejects allegations that it was involved in a plan to destabilize the Central African Republic, calling it disinformation.

Lake Chad Humanitarian Alarm: UNHCR says insecurity across the Lake Chad Basin has displaced 3.5 million people and pushed 8.2 million into need, with nearly 1,800 incidents and 5,700+ deaths recorded between Sept. 2025 and May 2026, warning the region is nearing a dangerous tipping point. US-Nigeria Security Partnership: The US withdrew most troops tied to a specific Lake Chad counter-ISIS operation, but both Washington and Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters insist intelligence sharing and joint cooperation continue, with DHQ stressing the drawdown was not a full exit. Borno Road Rehab for Security and Trade: Nigeria flagged off rehabilitation of the Bama-Banki and Dikwa-Gamboru-Ngala roads in Borno, framing the corridors as vital for commerce, cross-border movement, and better access for security forces. On-the-Ground Attacks in Borno: An IED explosion on the Komala axis in Konduga killed one and injured nine, while UN-linked reporting highlights how violence keeps disrupting civilian life and humanitarian access. Chad Denies CAR Destabilization Claims: Chad’s foreign ministry rejected allegations of involvement in a plot to destabilize the Central African Republic, calling it disinformation aimed at damaging bilateral ties. Border Smuggling Crackdown: Chad’s anti-illegal migration agency says it stopped a bid to smuggle 74 migrants south of Al-Wahat, detaining Chadian and Sudanese nationals for legal processing.

Lake Chad Security Alarm: UNHCR says insecurity across the Lake Chad Basin is worsening fast, with security incidents up 80% since Jan 2024 and nearly 1,800 attacks killing over 5,700 people between Sep 2025 and May 2026, pushing millions into displacement and threatening fragile stability. Border Control & Smuggling: Chad’s anti-illegal migration agency says it stopped a bid to move 74 undocumented migrants south of Al-Wahat, detaining 44 Chadians and 30 Sudanese and transferring them for legal processing and deportation. Chad Defends Itself on CAR Claims: Chad’s foreign ministry rejects allegations that it helped plan to destabilize the Central African Republic, calling it disinformation aimed at damaging bilateral ties and stressing non-interference. US-Nigeria Troop Debate (Regional Spillover): Multiple reports and DHQ clarifications focus on the US drawdown from Nigeria after an ISIS-linked operation, with Washington and Abuja insisting intelligence cooperation continues—an issue that keeps regional security planning in the spotlight. Regional Violence Continues: Boko Haram raids and IED attacks reported around the basin underline how quickly civilians remain exposed even as forces adjust tactics.

Chad–CAR Dispute: Chad’s Foreign Ministry flatly denied claims it was involved in a plan to destabilize the Central African Republic, calling the allegations part of a broader disinformation push meant to damage bilateral ties and sow distrust. Lake Chad Security & Humanitarian Fallout: UNHCR warned the Lake Chad Basin crisis is worsening, citing nearly 1,800 attacks killing over 5,700 people in nine months, with violence driving displacement across Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger. US Troop Drawdown, Partnership Kept: Multiple reports say the US withdrew most combat troops from Nigeria after a Lake Chad counter-ISIS operation that killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, while insisting intelligence sharing and training support continue at Abuja’s request; Nigeria’s Defence HQ also tried to clarify that “withdrawals” did not end the core partnership. Regional Security Rumors in Chad’s Neighborhood: In Nigeria’s Plateau State, security agencies faced heightened concern over unverified claims of armed men allegedly moving in from Chad—an allegation not officially confirmed.

US-Nigeria Security Shift: The US has withdrawn most troops from its May Lake Chad Basin counterterrorism operation, but will keep intelligence sharing with Abuja at Nigeria’s request after the killing of ISIS deputy Abu-Bilal al-Minuki. Chad Diplomacy: Chad’s President met UAE leadership in Abu Dhabi to strengthen cooperation, while regional partners also pushed for closer parliamentary and constitutional coordination. Sudan Humanitarian Alarm (spillover risk): The UN Human Rights Council held an urgent session over “siege-like” conditions in el-Obeid, warning of mass atrocities amid drone strikes, shortages, and reports of executions and sexual violence—raising fears for cross-border stability. Chad Youth & Sports: Chad’s Minister of Youth and Sports Naïr Abakar framed sport as a tool for youth empowerment and national cohesion, calling for long-term investment in the sporting ecosystem. Regional Security (Nigeria): Reports of terrorist ambushes and attacks on bases and schools underline ongoing instability across the Lake Chad region.

UAE–Chad Diplomacy: Chad President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno met UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi, reviewing ties in economy, trade, development and renewable energy, and pushing negotiations on a UAE–Chad Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. Regional Security (Lake Chad): The US withdrew most troops from Nigeria’s Lake Chad Basin counterterrorism mission but will keep intelligence sharing and security cooperation with Abuja against ISIS/Daesh. Sudan Spillover & Illicit Trade: Egypt launched a border crackdown targeting illegal gold mining and smuggling linked to Sudan’s wartime gold economy, detaining hundreds and highlighting how the conflict fuels cross-border illicit networks. Chad-Linked Humanitarian Context: MSF used a virtual reality exhibit in Madrid to spotlight displacement from Sudan to Chad, underscoring the strain on camps and the scale of suffering since 2023. Governance/Institutions (Togo–Chad–Gabon): Togo advanced constitutional and parliamentary cooperation involving Chad, including a visit by Togo’s National Assembly president to N’Djamena to deepen legislative dialogue.

UAE–Chad Diplomacy: Chad President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno met UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi, reviewing decades of ties and pushing a UAE–Chad Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement covering economy, trade, development and renewable energy. Security in the Lake Chad Basin: Nigerian troops reportedly foiled sea pirates’ kidnap attempt on Oron–Ibaka waterways in Akwa Ibom, rescuing 37 traders and crew. Counter-ISWAP Developments: A suspected ISWAP gunboat operator surrendered to Nigerian forces in Damasak, was quarantined, and is now undergoing profiling and intelligence debriefing. Niger Strikes: Operation Fansan Yamma air strikes in Niger state reportedly killed “scores” of terrorists and disrupted planned attacks. Regional Humanitarian Link to Chad: MSF launched a virtual reality exhibition in Madrid, “Forced Hope,” following a Sudanese technician’s displacement to a refugee camp in Chad. Chad-Adjacent Conflict Watch: Sudanese forces claimed they retook Kulbus, a strategic town near the Chadian border, amid intensified fighting in Darfur.

UAE–Chad Diplomacy: President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno met UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi, reviewing cooperation on trade, development and renewables, and pushing a UAE–Chad Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. Humanitarian Access at the Chad Border: Sudan extended for three months the opening of the Adré crossing with Chad for UN-monitored humanitarian aid, aiming to keep relief moving amid the war. Security Spillover in the Lake Chad Basin: Sudanese forces and allied Joint Forces claimed they retook Kulbus/Kolbus, a strategic town near the Chadian border in West Darfur, while fighting continues and claims remain contested. Aid in Chad Under Scrutiny: MSF says an internal probe found “sex-for-aid” abuse by staff in eastern Chad camps, sacking 18 workers and raising pressure on humanitarian oversight. Chad Water Development: A China-aided project in Mandoul and Salamat has delivered hundreds of hand-pump wells and water stations, easing long walks for safe water. Regional Context: Nigeria’s school abduction crisis in Borno continues to highlight the broader Lake Chad security threat.

Chad-UAE Diplomacy: President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno met UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi, reviewing economic, trade, development and renewable energy ties and discussing a UAE-Chad Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. Sudan–Chad Border Security: Sudan’s army and allied Joint Forces claimed they retook Kulbus/Kolbus, a strategic town near the Chadian border in West Darfur, while fighting continues and claims remain hard to verify. Humanitarian Access: Sudan extended the Adré crossing opening with Chad for three more months (until Sept. 30) to keep international humanitarian aid moving under a UN monitoring arrangement. Accountability in Aid: A report says Doctors Without Borders staff in eastern Chad allegedly exploited refugees in “sex-for-aid” abuses, leading to sackings and bans. Regional Conflict Spillover: UN-linked reporting highlights worsening cholera and continued violence affecting operations near the Chadian border. Governance & Rights: ERA launched 20-country environmental rights case studies to assess how communities can access information, participate in decisions, and seek justice. Public Safety/Media Literacy: A viral claim about ISWAP using 15-year-old boys in Sokoto was debunked as recycled footage from 2025.

ICC Scrutiny of Sudan War Support: A coalition of rights groups has filed an ICC submission alleging Libyan and UAE officials helped enable atrocities in Sudan’s Darfur, including claims that weapons and logistics for the RSF moved via transit hubs in Chad and other countries. Darfur Frontline Near Chad: Sudan’s army and allied forces claim they retook Kulbus, a strategic town near the Chadian border, while RSF has not commented and claims can’t be independently verified. Lake Chad Security Fallout: In Nigeria’s Borno, gunmen raided a school during exams, kidnapping 36 students (25 girls, 11 boys) and abducting three teachers; no group claimed responsibility. ISWAP Strain: Nigerian and allied operations reportedly killed key ISWAP commanders, disrupting leadership and supply networks. Humanitarian Access at Adré: Sudan extended for three months the opening of the Adré crossing with Chad for UN-monitored humanitarian aid. Chad Telecom Pressure: Airtel Chad announced a new investment plan to improve service quality after government concerns over network performance. Aid Agency Scandal in Chad: MSF says it sacked staff after an internal probe found “sex-for-aid” abuses in eastern Chad refugee areas.